Common comparison error
Expected value from a selected backtest, demo account, or short sample is not a guaranteed Affordability result.
GlossaryStrategy & risk
Expected value
The probability-weighted average net result under stated win, loss, refund, and payout assumptions. A high payout alone does not establish positive expected value.
Practical use
How to verify Expected value
Read Expected value together with Backtest, Affordability, Break-even win rate. The comparison must preserve the exact rule, value, state, and evidence described below.
A neutral example
Two samples share the same average for Expected value; one has five consecutive losses and the other twelve. Sequence and bankroll effects distinguish them from Backtest. Expected value is distinguished here by one decisive fact: win probability times net win plus loss probability times net loss must include refunds and fees.
Evidence path
Where to verify Expected value
Use the source that governs the exact contract, account, entity, or platform state. A general definition cannot replace current broker terms.