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GlossaryStrategy & risk

Backtest

An evaluation of fixed strategy rules against historical data using stated entry, payout, timing, and settlement assumptions. It does not prove future results.

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Do not confuse

Common comparison error

Changing rules after viewing unseen results turns a claimed Backtest into another development pass, not Out of sample test.

Practical use

How to verify Backtest

Read Backtest together with Expected value, Out-of-sample test, Forward test. The comparison must preserve the exact rule, value, state, and evidence described below.

A neutral example

At 80% net payout, a 100-unit stake needs more than 55.56% wins before costs. Backtest is recomputed after refunds, fees, and Expected value states. The operative detail for Backtest is concrete: historical rules require fixed entry, payout, timing, settlement, and exclusion assumptions before results are opened.

Evidence path

Where to verify Backtest

Use the source that governs the exact contract, account, entity, or platform state. A general definition cannot replace current broker terms.

Written calculation and full sampleState payout, loss treatment, assumptions, exclusions, stake path, cumulative exposure, stop rule, and uncertainty.
CFTC binary options resourcesUse regulator material as product-risk context, not as validation of a strategy or broker.Open source