Common comparison error
Break even win rate stated to two decimals is not precise evidence unless sample size, uncertainty, and Expected value support it.
GlossaryStrategy & risk
Break-even win rate
The minimum win rate needed to offset losses at a stated payout. At an 80% payout it is about 55.56%.
Detailed explanation
How Break-even win rate works in practice
01
Mechanics
Break-even is the win probability that makes the stated expected value zero under fixed assumptions. With net payout b, full loss, and no fees or refunds, it is 1 divided by 1 plus b. It is a mathematical threshold, not a predicted win rate.
02
Worked example
At 80% payout, break-even is 55.56%. If losing contracts refund 5% of stake, loss is 0.95 unit and break-even becomes 0.95 divided by 0.80 plus 0.95, or about 54.29%. Fees and mixed payouts require a weighted calculation.
03
Decision rule
State payout distribution, loss treatment, refunds, ties, voids, fees, sample selection, and uncertainty before comparing an observed win rate with break-even.
Practical use
How to verify Break-even win rate
Read Break-even win rate together with Observed win rate, Expected value, Backtest. The comparison must preserve the exact rule, value, state, and evidence described below.
A neutral example
Break even win rate is calculated from 200 predeclared contracts: 118 wins, 78 losses, and four voids at observed payouts. Denominator, uncertainty, drawdown, and Observed win rate remain visible. This cannot be swapped with a neighboring term: for Break even win rate, an 80 percent net payout requires about 55.56 percent wins before fees or refunds alter the equation.
Evidence path
Where to verify Break-even win rate
Use the source that governs the exact contract, account, entity, or platform state. A general definition cannot replace current broker terms.