Trading journal

The probability-weighted average net result under stated win, loss, refund, and payout assumptions. A high payout alone does not establish positive expected value.

An evaluation of fixed strategy rules against historical data using stated entry, payout, timing, and settlement assumptions. It does not prove future results.

The minimum win rate needed to offset losses at a stated payout. At an 80% payout it is about 55.56%.

A range expressing uncertainty around an estimated win rate or other statistic. It helps prevent a small sample from being presented as a precise result.

A voluntary or platform-enforced cap on losses over a session, day, week, or other period. Check how it is calculated and changed.

Winning settled contracts divided by valid settled contracts in a defined sample, with a stated period, sample size, payout, and treatment of void contracts.