Payout evidence
Binary Options Payout Break-Even Win Rate Table
Calculate the minimum win rate needed to break even at common net payout rates under a full-loss, no-fee model.
Reference table
Calculate another payoutBreak-even win rate by net payout
The threshold equals 1 divided by 1 plus the net payout rate. A lower payout requires a higher win rate before fees, refunds, or execution differences.
| Citation ID | Net payout | Gross return including stake | Break-even win rate | Reuse this row |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BE-030 | 30% | 130% | 76.92% |
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BE-035 | 35% | 135% | 74.07% |
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BE-040 | 40% | 140% | 71.43% |
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BE-045 | 45% | 145% | 68.97% |
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BE-050 | 50% | 150% | 66.67% |
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BE-055 | 55% | 155% | 64.52% |
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BE-060 | 60% | 160% | 62.50% |
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BE-065 | 65% | 165% | 60.61% |
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BE-070 | 70% | 170% | 58.82% |
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BE-075 | 75% | 175% | 57.14% |
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BE-080 | 80% | 180% | 55.56% |
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BE-085 | 85% | 185% | 54.05% |
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BE-090 | 90% | 190% | 52.63% |
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BE-095 | 95% | 195% | 51.28% |
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BE-100 | 100% | 200% | 50.00% |
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Publication boundary
A mathematical threshold, not a forecast
The result is a mathematical threshold. It does not estimate a user's probability of winning or establish an edge.
How to cite and reuse the table
Use the row link when one payout is relevant. Preserve the net payout, break-even result, formula assumptions, and citation ID. Use the CSV or JSON file when reproducing the full table.