{
  "assetId": "payout-break-even-v1",
  "title": "Break-even win rate by net payout",
  "formula": {
    "notation": "p_break_even = 1 / (1 + b)",
    "payoutDefinition": "b is net profit on a winning contract as a decimal fraction of stake",
    "derivation": "Set expected value b * p - (1 - p) to zero and solve for p",
    "assumptions": [
      "A winning contract returns the original stake plus b times the stake as net profit",
      "A losing contract loses the full stake",
      "There is no tie refund, partial-loss refund, fee, rebate, or execution difference",
      "The same net payout applies to every observation"
    ],
    "notAClaim": "The result is a mathematical threshold. It does not estimate a user's probability of winning or establish an edge."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "type": "repository-implementation",
      "path": "assets/js/product-core.js",
      "anchor": "calculatePayoutBreakEven"
    },
    {
      "type": "repository-methodology",
      "path": "scripts/build-site.mjs",
      "anchor": "Payout guide break-even scenario"
    }
  ],
  "columns": [
    "citationId",
    "netPayoutPercent",
    "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake",
    "breakEvenWinRatePercent"
  ],
  "rows": [
    { "citationId": "BE-030", "netPayoutPercent": 30, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 130, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 76.9231 },
    { "citationId": "BE-035", "netPayoutPercent": 35, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 135, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 74.0741 },
    { "citationId": "BE-040", "netPayoutPercent": 40, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 140, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 71.4286 },
    { "citationId": "BE-045", "netPayoutPercent": 45, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 145, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 68.9655 },
    { "citationId": "BE-050", "netPayoutPercent": 50, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 150, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 66.6667 },
    { "citationId": "BE-055", "netPayoutPercent": 55, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 155, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 64.5161 },
    { "citationId": "BE-060", "netPayoutPercent": 60, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 160, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 62.5 },
    { "citationId": "BE-065", "netPayoutPercent": 65, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 165, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 60.6061 },
    { "citationId": "BE-070", "netPayoutPercent": 70, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 170, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 58.8235 },
    { "citationId": "BE-075", "netPayoutPercent": 75, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 175, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 57.1429 },
    { "citationId": "BE-080", "netPayoutPercent": 80, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 180, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 55.5556 },
    { "citationId": "BE-085", "netPayoutPercent": 85, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 185, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 54.0541 },
    { "citationId": "BE-090", "netPayoutPercent": 90, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 190, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 52.6316 },
    { "citationId": "BE-095", "netPayoutPercent": 95, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 195, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 51.2821 },
    { "citationId": "BE-100", "netPayoutPercent": 100, "grossReturnPercentIncludingStake": 200, "breakEvenWinRatePercent": 50 }
  ]
}